Super El Niño Projected to Cause 451,000 Excess Deaths Through February

Climate scientists project approximately 451,000 deaths will result from heat exacerbated by the current El Niño phenomenon between June 2026 and February 2027, in addition to deaths already attributable to climate change. The estimate, covering regions from Indonesia to the United States, is based on a peer-reviewed analysis of temperature-mortality relationships across 24,378 regions globally. Researchers emphasize that proactive measures, improved heat forecasts, cooling centers, and worker protections, could mitigate the toll. The current El Niño has surpassed previous temperature records, described as “mind-blowing” and “Godzilla-level,” and is pushing temperatures to levels not expected for another 20 years.

The University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute and researchers at UC Berkeley developed the projections using seasonal temperature forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and previously published temperature-mortality data from the Quarterly Journal of Economics. Emily Grover-Kopec, a co-author, explained that the ECMWF forecast represents a moderate view of projected temperature anomalies, and the team utilized a 30-year baseline (1996-2025) to align with current decision-making timelines. The methodology differs from previous long-term climate model projections by focusing on shorter-term seasonal forecasts.

The most affected countries are expected to be Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil, with the US ranking among the top 20. The Sahel region of Africa and Southeast Asia will also experience significant impacts. Abhiyant Tiwari of the Natural Resources Defense Council in India noted the report serves as an early warning, but cautioned that the mortality estimates are model-based projections. He highlighted India’s existing Heat Action Plans as a potential model for preparedness. Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, emphasized the human cost of the projected deaths, stating the number represents “parents and children, grandparents and neighbours.” Elevated heat deaths are expected to continue until June or July 2027, even after the current forecast period ends.

Where they differ

• Hindustan Times focused on the methodology behind the 451,000 death estimate, detailing the use of seasonal temperature forecasts and temperature-mortality relationships.
• Mother Jones led with the overall projected death toll and emphasized the human cost of the numbers, quoting Michael Greenstone on the individuals represented by the statistic.

What is not yet known

• The extent to which countries will implement the recommended mitigation measures (heat forecasts, cooling centers, worker protections) remains unclear.
• The degree to which the current El Niño is exacerbated by long-term global heating is not fully quantified.

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