The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on Tuesday that it will leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) after more than 50 years, effective May 1. The UAE, which is OPEC's third-largest producer behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq with an output of 3.4 million barrels per day before the Iran conflict, said the decision was made to focus on national interests and pursue accelerated production. The move comes as global energy markets are roiled by the war in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that has cut off an estimated 2 million barrels per day of oil shipments.
The UAE's departure weakens the 13-member cartel, which has faced internal divisions, particularly between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over production quotas. CNBC reported that the UAE wants to ramp up production without constraints from OPEC, which could prove bearish for prices at some point. The Washington Post noted that the exit is a blow to Saudi Arabia and comes as the global economy reels from the Iran war energy shock, while former U.S. President Donald Trump had long criticized OPEC.
Left-leaning sources emphasized the geopolitical and market implications. BBC economics editor Faisal Islam wrote that the exit "will have little effect on the current oil blockades, but it could change everything afterwards." PBS NewsHour reported that there is almost no movement through the Strait of Hormuz and little progress on U.S.-Iran talks. Euronews described the decision as a major blow to the alliance of oil producers as the crisis escalates. France24 quoted energy expert Giacomo Luciani, who said the move is "a manifestation of dissatisfaction vis à vis Saudi Arabia." The Independent stated that the departure strips OPEC of its third-largest producer and further weakens its leverage over global supplies and prices. Wired noted the UAE will end its 59-year membership "during one of the most volatile energy markets in years."
The sole right-leaning source, RT, quoted a former UAE diplomat saying, "More countries ‘very likely’ to leave OPEC," and suggested the cartel is likely to crumble. No other right-leaning outlets reported on the story.
Center outlets provided additional context. Axios highlighted the UAE's desire for "accelerated" production. RealClear Politics described the exit as a "heavy blow to the oil cartel as the war in Iran scrambles alliances." The Economist argued that the departure "may not break the cartel" but "highlights longstanding tensions that the Gulf war has exacerbated." Mercopress noted the UAE's pre-conflict output of 3.4 million barrels per day.
The UAE will also leave the broader OPEC+ alliance. The country's energy minister was quoted saying the decision aligns with a "new energy age." The exit takes effect May 1, and analysts are assessing the long-term impact on oil prices and the cartel's future.
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