Netanyahu Leads in Israeli Election, But Falls Short of Majority

Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc is leading in Israel’s parliamentary election, but with 85% of ballots counted, the group is still short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Initial exit polls varied, with some projecting a tie between the Netanyahu and opposition blocs, while others gave a narrow lead to Netanyahu. With between 430,000 and 480,000 absentee ballots still to be counted, final results are expected next week. President Isaac Herzog will then begin consultations with political factions to determine who is best positioned to form a government, a process that could take weeks, and potentially lead to another election if an agreement cannot be reached.

According to partial results, Netanyahu’s Likud party and its allies are on track to win 53 seats, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and three other opposition parties are set for 48. Arab-led parties are projected to win an unprecedented 19 seats, potentially making them kingmakers, though most Jewish parties have pledged not to work with them. Turnout in Tuesday’s election was 77.7%, the highest in over two decades.

Eisenkot claimed the public “spoke in favour of change,” while Netanyahu declared his bloc had won a “great majority.” The CS Monitor reported a surge in enthusiasm for parties representing Arab citizens, motivated by increased violent crime in Arab communities and a lackluster turnout in the 2022 elections. Yousef Jabareen, head of the Joint List, stated that the results indicate the current government “cannot continue.” Gideon Sa'ar, Israel's foreign minister, rebutted claims of an opposition victory, stating celebrations were premature. The BBC reported President Herzog praised the high turnout, emphasizing the “deep desire for democracy” in Israel.

Where they differ

• The CS Monitor emphasized a surge in support for parties representing Arab citizens, while the BBC and RFI did not highlight this trend.
• The BBC included a quote from President Herzog praising the high voter turnout, a detail not present in the other sources.
• RFI focused on the initial vote count of 50% of ballots, while the BBC and CS Monitor reported on results with 85% of ballots counted.

What is not yet known

• Whether President Herzog will task Netanyahu or Eisenkot with forming a governing coalition remains uncertain.
• It is unclear if any Arab-led parties will be included in the governing coalition, given pledges from most Jewish parties not to work with them.

Background

• Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats, requiring 61 for a governing majority [background knowledge].
• The October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas and the ensuing conflict have heavily influenced this election cycle, driving high voter turnout [Fact Refinery, 2026-10-27].
• Benjamin Netanyahu has been in power for nearly 19 years, and this election is seen as a referendum on his leadership [Fact Refinery, 2026-10-27].
• Exit polls in the 2026-10-27 election initially indicated a narrow lead for the opposition bloc, but neither side secured a clear path to a majority [Fact Refinery, 2026-10-27].

Our reading

Our reading is that while Netanyahu’s bloc currently leads, the lack of a clear majority creates significant uncertainty regarding the formation of a government. The potential for Arab-led parties to become kingmakers, coupled with pledges from Jewish parties not to collaborate with them, suggests a complex and potentially prolonged negotiation process. The differing emphasis across news sources on the surge in Arab voter turnout highlights a notable shift in the electorate, though its ultimate impact remains to be seen.

What to watch

• The official final vote count, including the approximately 430,000-480,000 absentee ballots, to confirm whether Netanyahu’s bloc can reach 61 seats [BBC, 2026-11-05].
• President Herzog’s consultations with political factions and his subsequent designation of a candidate to attempt forming a government, expected next week [Fact Refinery, 2026-11-05].
• Whether any Jewish parties revise their stance on collaborating with Arab-led parties, potentially altering the coalition dynamics [Fact Refinery, 2026-10-28].

Was this useful? 👍 0 👎 0

---

Read the original coverage