The first polls closed in the 2026 midterm elections in Indiana and Kentucky Tuesday evening, with voting continuing across the country as Americans decide control of Congress for the remainder of Donald Trump’s second term. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are at stake, alongside 36 governorships. Democrats need to flip three House seats and four Senate seats to gain control of both chambers. Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic candidate for governor of Texas, stated that her campaign is within the margin of error, attributing this to voter anger over cuts to public schools and concerns about corruption. She emphasized the importance of the Latino vote, noting that Beto O’Rourke received 64% of that demographic in 2018 and that the Latino population has grown since then.
President Trump’s approval rating reached a historic low of 30% in early October, according to the Pew Research Center, a level not seen before a midterm election since Harry Truman in 1946. The public’s dissatisfaction largely stems from the economy, with 84% of registered voters considering it a “very important issue” in this election. The FBI debunked a claim circulating online that 20,000 fraudulent ballots favoring Democratic candidates were discovered in Houston, Texas, confirming that no such operation occurred.
Voting disruptions were reported in Florida, New York, and North Carolina, with some polling locations experiencing relocations due to flooding or technical issues. In North Carolina, voting hours were extended at select locations following opening delays. Steve Kornacki noted that systematic polling inaccuracies in recent elections, particularly underestimating Republican voters, could alter the outcome. RT reported that Alaska broke its midterm record for early and absentee voting, but the surge is complicated by a third-party candidate accused of being a deliberate spoiler.
Several key House races are being closely watched, including those in Florida’s 25th District, North Carolina’s 1st District, and Texas’ 15th District. The election is also poised to potentially result in several historic firsts, including the first Native American female governor and senators, the first Black female governor, the first openly gay male US senator, and the first Muslim US senator.
Our reading is that these midterm elections are particularly fraught with uncertainty, as indicated by the historically low presidential approval rating and the reported polling inaccuracies. The emphasis on potential Republican gains from those inaccuracies, coupled with reports of voting disruptions, suggests a contested outcome and a possible challenge to the expected Democratic gains. The focus on potential "firsts" highlights the possibility of significant shifts in the composition of leadership, while the debunked claims of fraud demonstrate the presence of disinformation campaigns.
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