More than one million supporters of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rallied in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo on Saturday, hoping to propel the left-wing president towards a comeback in Sunday’s runoff election against Flávio Bolsonaro. The election, with nearly 159 million Brazilians eligible to vote, remains closely contested after Bolsonaro led the first round with 47% of the vote to Lula’s 45%. Recent polls show a tight race, with a CNT/MDA survey on Saturday indicating Bolsonaro at 46.3% and Lula at 45%, a slight narrowing from the previous week’s 46.8% to 45.9%. Lula’s campaign has gained momentum in recent days amid scandals involving his opponent, including reports that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party during the 2020 coronavirus outbreak with individuals seeking to negotiate vaccine deals.
At the Copacabana beach rally, estimated at 1.1 million attendees by Rio’s City Hall, supporters displayed a banner reading “WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND!” Lula addressed supporters, contrasting himself with his opponent by stating, “The people must choose either someone who kisses the national flag or someone who kisses the American flag,” referencing Bolsonaro’s ties to former US President Donald Trump. Josias Silva, a 61-year-old truck driver, expressed confidence in Lula’s victory, stating, “The people have woken up,” and voicing concerns about a return to “dictatorship.” Marta Moraes, a 59-year-old restaurateur, emphasized that the election was not about left versus right, but “against Bolsonarismo.”
Bolsonaro’s supporters gathered in Minas Gerais, including hundreds of motorcyclists, with Ebert Dorigo arguing that Lula’s Workers’ Party encourages dependence on government welfare. The campaign has highlighted deep divisions over economic policy, crime, and Brazil’s political future, with Bolsonaro promising to address violent crime with stricter measures. His father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula. While the two candidates struck a calmer tone during their final debate on Friday, they continued to trade accusations over economic difficulties and their records. Some voters, like Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, expressed dissatisfaction with both candidates, stating, “If there were any other candidate, that would be a better option.”
Our reading is that this election is deeply polarized, with both candidates mobilizing significant support on the eve of the vote. The contrasting rallies and rhetoric, Lula emphasizing national identity versus Bolsonaro’s perceived alignment with the US, highlight the fundamental ideological divisions at play. The narrow polling data and recent scandals suggest a highly uncertain outcome, with voter dissatisfaction potentially playing a significant role.
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