Voters in 39 states will decide 145 statewide measures in next month’s midterm elections, ranging from a proposed 5% wealth tax on California billionaires to restrictions on transgender athletes and access to gender-affirming care. While voters generally support the initiative process, measures themselves often fail to pass, with a long-run average passage rate of 41%, according to University of Southern California business professor John Matsusaka.
California’s Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on residents with a net worth of at least $1 billion, potentially raising $100 billion for healthcare, education, and food assistance. The tax would apply to approximately 200 individuals. However, Propositions 41 and 42 could hinder its implementation; Proposition 41 requires audits of new special taxes and bars those circumventing spending limits, while Proposition 42 prohibits new taxes on retirement holdings and limits retroactive taxes. State taxes targeting the ultra-wealthy are gaining traction, with Massachusetts enacting a 4% surtax on income above $1 million and Washington state a 9.9% tax on earnings exceeding $1 million. Washington voters will also consider Initiative 645, which would repeal the millionaire tax, and Tennessee voters will consider Amendment 3, which would permanently bar wealth taxes.
Property tax issues are also prevalent on state ballots. Beyond finances, several states are considering referendums regarding transgender rights. Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, and Washington voters will decide on measures restricting transgender athletes’ participation in sports based on sex assigned at birth, with Washington’s measure requiring healthcare documentation. Colorado and Missouri voters will also vote on measures limiting gender-affirming care for minors.
In addition to these, voter access is a key issue in 13 states. California, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona would impose voter identification laws. Alaska, Arizona, South Dakota, Kansas, Arkansas, and West Virginia have ballot measures mandating only U.S. citizens can vote, despite noncitizens being ineligible under federal law. Massachusetts voters will decide on same-day voter registration, and Virginia voters will consider restoring voting rights to some incarcerated citizens after release.
Our reading is that these midterm ballots represent a significant arena for policy experimentation and debate across a range of contentious issues. The sheer number of measures, 145 across 39 states, suggests a high degree of citizen engagement, but the historical failure rate indicates that many proposals will not succeed. The focus on wealth taxes, transgender rights, and voter access reflects deep divisions within the electorate and the ongoing struggle to define fundamental rights and responsibilities.
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