Serbia is experiencing a significantly higher voter turnout in its snap parliamentary election, with 46% of registered voters having cast their ballots by 2:00 PM CET, a 14.2 percentage point increase compared to the same time in the December 2023 election. The election follows years of student protests sparked by incidents like the 2024 collapse of a train station canopy, and pits Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) against the Student List, an anti-corruption movement. Vučić, who served two terms as president and cannot seek a third, is now aiming to return to the post of prime minister, highlighting economic growth and infrastructure improvements during his tenure. The Student List is campaigning on a platform of anti-corruption measures, including purging officials and freeing the public broadcaster from political control.
Polling firm Ipsos and monitoring group CeSID estimate the 46.4% turnout as of 2:00 PM CET, while the Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) counted 34.55% by noon, excluding Kosovo, compared to 21.33% at the same time in 2023. Prediction markets, as of 9:39 AM ET, give the Student List a 49% chance of winning at least 46% of the vote. Long queues have formed at polling stations both within Serbia and abroad, including in cities like Ljubljana, Munich, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Paris. Tensions are high, with police closing streets around the Republic Electoral Commission in Belgrade, and supporters of the Student List publicly playing the group’s anthem.
Commentators suggest a final turnout of 65% or higher would favor the Student List. Vučić’s SNS party denies corruption allegations and claims of media influence. He also maintains a pro-EU stance while refusing to impose sanctions on Russia, and has pledged increased pensions, salaries, and investment in healthcare. The election is taking place for all 250 seats in the National Assembly, with approximately 6.45 million registered voters.
Our reading is that the unexpectedly high turnout suggests a significant level of dissatisfaction with the ruling Serbian Progressive Party and a strong desire for change among the electorate. The focus on the Student List, an anti-corruption movement, and the reported atmosphere of support, including public displays of their anthem, indicate a potential shift in the political landscape. While Vučić’s party denies wrongdoing, the data points to a mobilized opposition with a real chance of challenging the established order.
Read the original coverage
💬 Comments
📜 Comment Policy