Danish Intelligence Warns of Potential Russian Attacks on NATO Countries

Danish intelligence has assessed a “low but growing risk” that Russia could launch military or hybrid attacks against a NATO country in the coming months, potentially targeting infrastructure supporting Ukraine or conducting limited incursions. The assessment comes after a fire at a Starlink satellite station in Poland, described by Polish officials as an act of sabotage designed to disrupt internet access for Ukrainian military institutions. Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski indicated the fire aligns with Russia’s doctrine of hybrid warfare, though responsibility remains unconfirmed.

Germany recently blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack on Leipzig/Halle airport, and other incidents targeting European infrastructure have been investigated for potential Russian links. Russia denies involvement in these attacks. Intelligence chiefs across Europe have warned of escalating Russian actions to test NATO’s commitment to Ukraine, with the Danish intelligence report specifically warning of destructive cyberattacks and sabotage with potential for casualties.

A source familiar with Moscow’s thinking stated that Russian military leadership believes some NATO countries are already engaged in a hybrid war against Russia by supplying Ukraine with weapons, intelligence, and assistance in guiding missiles and drones, justifying a response in kind. These “hybrid attacks” encompass cyberattacks and sabotage, aimed at destabilizing adversaries. The Financial Times reported the intelligence service cites a ‘low but growing risk’ of troop movement into a neighbouring country or assault on infrastructure.

What is not yet known

• The extent to which NATO countries are directly involved in guiding missiles and drones targeting Russia, as claimed by the source within Moscow.
• Whether the fire at the Starlink satellite station in Poland was definitively linked to Russia.

Background

• Poland is investigating a fire at a Starlink satellite station as potential sabotage, aligning with a reported new Russian doctrine of attack [Fact Refinery, 2026-09-24].
• Ukraine launched over 1,000 drones at Russia, targeting Moscow and oil facilities, coinciding with Russia’s parliamentary elections [Fact Refinery, 2026-09-20].
• Lithuania is developing evacuation plans and bolstering defenses due to repeated Russian threats and airspace incursions, feeling “constantly threatened” [Fact Refinery, 2026-09-22].
• NATO is a military alliance established after World War II to provide collective security against external aggression [background knowledge].

Our reading

Our reading is that the Danish intelligence assessment, combined with recent incidents and accusations, suggests a discernible escalation in Russian actions aimed at destabilizing NATO allies. The stated justification from Moscow, that NATO countries are already engaged in hybrid warfare against Russia, appears to be a framing device intended to legitimize retaliatory measures. While a full-scale military attack remains unlikely, the report highlights a growing concern about the potential for disruptive and potentially lethal hybrid attacks on critical infrastructure.

What to watch

• Confirmation from Poland regarding definitive links between Russia and the Starlink station fire [Polish government statements].
• The release of further details regarding the extent of NATO countries’ involvement in guiding missiles and drones targeting Russia, as claimed by the Moscow source [intelligence community reports].
• Any significant changes in NATO troop deployments or security measures in countries bordering Russia, particularly in the Baltic states [NATO press releases/official statements].

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