A new study reveals climate change is altering the geographic distribution of malaria across Africa, with a shift away from West and Central Africa towards eastern and southern regions.
Romaric Odoulami, a climatologist at the University of Cape Town in South Africa, explains that malaria transmission and the mosquito life cycle are “very sensitive to temperature.” The research, published July 29 in *Nature*, indicates that rising temperatures may create less hospitable conditions for disease-carrying mosquitoes in West and Central Africa, while simultaneously fostering a more favorable climate in East and southern Africa. Historically, malaria has been most prevalent in West and Central Africa due to suitable temperatures for both the *Plasmodium* parasite and *Anopheles* mosquitoes.
Researchers analyzed blood sample datasets from sub-Saharan Africa spanning over a century. They built a computer model linking childhood malaria prevalence to temperature and precipitation, then compared it to a model without climate change. The team found that from 1901 to 2014, climate change likely caused a net 0.5 percent increase in malaria transmission across sub-Saharan Africa—one excess case for every 1,000 children—with a more significant increase in East and southern Africa. For example, malaria spread increased by 8 cases per 1,000 children in the Ethiopian highlands, while transmission rates decreased by 1 to 2 percent (about four fewer cases per 1,000 children) in parts of West Africa.
The researchers predict that climate change will lower malaria transmission rates in sub-Saharan Africa by 2 percent over the next 85 years, assuming a 2.7° Celsius global warming scenario. However, Cyril Caminade, a climatologist at the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste, Italy, emphasizes that malaria transmission is primarily influenced by control efforts, which have a greater impact than climate-induced changes. He suggests the importance of expanding mitigation strategies, including mosquito bed nets.
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