U.S. and Israel Plan Renewed Strikes on Iran After Elections

The U.S. and Israel have developed specific plans for renewed strikes against Iran following the American midterm elections, targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal. U.S. and Israeli militaries are conducting exercises to prepare for a “short, intense operation,” while U.S. diplomats are leveraging the threat of military action in negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz. The plans, according to U.S. officials and others briefed on the deliberations, come despite skepticism that a renewed conflict would be more successful than previous engagements between February and April, which drove up energy prices and strained Pentagon resources.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in October to discuss the potential strikes. Some officials believe a further round of attacks could cripple Iran’s economy and compel diplomatic concessions, though Iran has vowed to retaliate by expanding targets beyond regional commercial and energy infrastructure to include data centers and underwater internet cables. Iran has stated any fighting will be neither quick nor limited.

The U.S. is assembling a substantial arsenal expected to be in place by early November. However, President Trump has repeatedly vetoed plans for a return to major combat operations, including in 2026. The upcoming Israeli election on October 27 adds another layer of complexity, as a loss for Netanyahu could lead to a change in leadership and potentially delay or halt any planned attacks. Iranian negotiators have so far resisted concessions on its nuclear program, deferring the issue to later in talks.

What is not yet known

• Whether President Trump will ultimately approve the strikes remains uncertain.
• The extent to which the Israeli election will impact the plans is unresolved.

Background

• The U.S. and Israel have engaged in military action against Iran earlier in 2026, driving up energy prices and straining U.S. military resources [Fact Refinery, 2026-10-19].
• Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump have a history of close coordination on military matters relating to Iran, with Trump recently endorsing Netanyahu’s reelection bid [Fact Refinery, 2026-10-18].
• Iran has been involved in multiple security incidents in the region, including attacks on commercial vessels and infrastructure, and has warned of retaliation for further aggression [Fact Refinery, 2026-10-15].
• British authorities have recently rearrested individuals suspected of Iranian intelligence involvement in a plot targeting a US airbase in the UK [Fact Refinery, 2026-10-20].
• Meta Platforms was recently ordered to pay $25 billion in a data privacy case related to the Cambridge Analytica scandal [Fact Refinery, 2026-10-21].

Our reading

Our reading is that the U.S. and Israel are actively preparing for military action against Iran despite acknowledging past failures and facing internal political obstacles. The stated leveraging of military threats in diplomatic negotiations suggests a willingness to escalate tensions, even if the ultimate goal is a negotiated outcome. The timing, immediately following the U.S. midterm elections and coinciding with the Israeli election, indicates a calculated risk assessment, balancing potential benefits against significant political and economic uncertainties.

What to watch

• The outcome of the Israeli election on October 27, to determine if a change in leadership alters the plans for strikes [article text].
• Whether President Trump ultimately approves the planned strikes, given his previous vetoes of major combat operations [article text].
• The level of Iran’s response to any potential attacks, specifically whether they expand targets beyond regional infrastructure as threatened [article text].

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