Tight Races in Florida and Texas Prompt Democratic Confidence Amidst GOP Gerrymandering

Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances in several congressional races in Florida and Texas, including districts redrawn by Republicans this year, despite expectations of easier pickups. In Florida’s 16th Congressional District, Democratic candidate Kelly Kirschner is in a tight race against Republican Sydney Gruters, following the retirement of longtime Republican Congressman Vern Buchanan. Kirschner, campaigning on issues like the cost of living and healthcare, points to recent polls showing him either leading or within four points of Gruters, who is endorsed by Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Rick Scott and has received over $1.6 million in funding, including from SpaceX. Similar competitive races are unfolding in Texas, where Democrats are seeing shifts among Latino voters and capitalizing on what one candidate calls “buyer’s remorse” among Trump voters.

Florida joined several states in mid-decade redistricting, with Governor Ron DeSantis claiming the changes were necessary to reflect the state’s growing population. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is traveling to Texas this weekend to support candidates in these contested districts, while President Trump is scheduled to visit Florida and Texas next week to bolster Republican campaigns. Kirschner’s campaign has faced attacks from Trump loyalist Laura Loomer, utilizing old social media posts related to the Black Lives Matter movement, which Kirschner attributes to desperation from his opponents. He noted that one recent poll showed Gruters leading by four points, while another showed Kirschner ahead by one. Bobby Pulido, a candidate in South Texas, reports a sense of regret among some Trump voters. The scenario is playing out across multiple congressional races in Florida that were gerrymandered to benefit Republicans.

Where they differ

• Mother Jones focused on the specific race in Florida’s 16th Congressional District, detailing Kirschner’s campaign promises and the funding disparity between the candidates.
• Semafor broadened the scope to include Texas, highlighting the broader Democratic confidence in flipping seats in both states and the role of Latino voters.
• Mother Jones included a direct quote from Kirschner regarding Elon Musk and empathy, while Semafor did not.
• Semafor highlighted the term 'buyer's remorse' among Trump voters, a sentiment not present in the Mother Jones article.

What is not yet known

• The ultimate outcome of the races in Florida and Texas remains uncertain.
• The extent to which shifts among Latino voters will impact the overall election results is not fully established.

Background

• Latino voters favored Donald Trump over Kamala Harris on handling the economy by four points two years ago, but now favor Democrats by 21 points on the same question [Fact Refinery, 2026-10-05].
• In 2024, Latino voters helped propel Donald Trump to the White House [Fact Refinery, 2026-10-05].
• Florida and Texas both drew new, heavily Latino congressional districts in 2024 as part of redistricting efforts [Fact Refinery, 2026-10-05].
• Florida engaged in mid-decade redistricting, with the governor claiming the changes were necessary to reflect population growth [from article].

Our reading

Our reading is that despite Republican gerrymandering in Florida and Texas, Democrats are demonstrating surprising competitiveness in key congressional races. The article suggests a potential shift in voter sentiment, particularly among Latino voters and some previous Trump supporters, creating unexpected opportunities for Democratic gains. While the outcomes remain uncertain, the level of competition in traditionally safe Republican districts is noteworthy and indicates a more complex political landscape than anticipated.

What to watch

• The results of the congressional races in Florida’s 16th District and South Texas, specifically the final vote counts for Kirschner and Pulido [election results websites].
• President Trump and House Minority Leader Jeffries’ respective rally attendance and messaging in Florida and Texas next week [news coverage, social media].
• Final polling data released before the election, particularly regarding Latino voter preferences and the “buyer’s remorse” sentiment among Trump voters [polling aggregators].

Was this useful? 👍 0 👎 0

---

Read the original coverage