Latino voters, a key demographic that helped propel Donald Trump to the White House in 2024, are now turning away from him and the Republican Party, according to new polling from NBC News and Telemundo. The poll, conducted September 21-28, reveals a 27% approval rating for Trump among Latino voters, with 69% disapproving. Two-thirds say his administration’s deportation policies have gone too far, and 75% disapprove of his handling of the economy and cost of living. This shift is reflected in a 24-point Democratic lead on whom Latino voters want to control Congress (59%-35%), double their lead at this point in 2024, though still below 2018 levels.
Two years ago, Latino voters gave Trump a 4-point edge over then-Vice President Kamala Harris on handling the economy. Now, they favor Democrats by 21 points on the same question. Nearly a fifth of Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024 now say they do not prefer a Republican-controlled Congress, with 14% supporting Democrats and 8% unsure. This reversal is particularly notable given the Republican Party’s focus on gains among Latino voters, including drawing new, heavily Latino districts in Florida and Texas in 2024.
While the GOP saw improvement in Latino support over the past decade, rising from 21% in 2016 and 26% in 2018, the current trend suggests trouble ahead for Republican candidates in the midterms. Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo described the reversal as “striking,” while Republican pollster Micah Roberts called the group “the swingiest of swing groups.” Trump, speaking in Dayton, Ohio, on Saturday, argued that polls are inaccurate because they do not account for his campaigning efforts. The poll surveyed 800 registered Latino voters and has a margin of error of 3.5%.
Our reading is that a significant demographic shift is underway among Latino voters, moving away from support for Donald Trump and the Republican Party. This reversal, evidenced by declining approval ratings and a growing preference for Democratic control of Congress, is striking given the party’s recent efforts to court this voting bloc. The data suggests a potential challenge for Republican candidates in the upcoming midterms, as previously reliable support appears to be eroding.
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